3/8/2008

Today: Oberweis v. Foster & Wyoming

Here are the previews for Wyoming:
Wyoming, land of firsts for women, tough on Clinton - Reuters

Obama strongest in Wyoming delegate roundup - Chicago Tribune

Obama leads Clinton in Wyoming - Los Angeles Times

Obama Leads Clinton in Wyoming Caucuses - Associated Press


And the previews for Oberweis v. Foster:
Rookie Congressman to Fill Hastert Seat - Associated Press

Voters go to polls in 14th district race - ABC 7 Chicago

Special Election Under Way For Hastert's Congressional Seat - NBC 5 Chicago

Race for Hastert's Seat Is Unexpectedly Close - Washington Post

Vote today, but it's just round one - Chicago Tribune

Special election to replace Dennis Hastert could have national implications - Chicago Tribune

Physicist vs. ice cream man in rare Saturday election - Chicago Sun-Times

Final day for 14th District race - Aurora Beacon News

Your Spin Guide to the Illinois Special Election - Congressional Quarterly

Democrats reporting irregularities in 14th District voting machines - Daily Herald

Voting takes place among errands - Aurora Beacon News


As you can see from the articles above, with about now about 75% of the precincts reporting, Barack Obama has a pretty comfortable 59%-40% lead on Hillary Clinton. Nothing surprising there. Of the 14 Democrat caucuses held so far, Clinton has only won two: Nevada and American Samoa. The remaining vote would have to be a major spike for Hillary to pull the margin of loss down into "moral victory" territory. It'll be a win for Obama, but not one that will receive credence as an indicator in this race.

More on the Oberweis v. Foster race here


Results for today's contests will be here:

Wyoming

Oberweis v. Foster updates will be posted as they become known...


UPDATE: 5:10pm
Barack Obama has won the Wyoming Democrat caucus


UPDATE: 8:20pm
From the Beacon News' blog:

FROM OBERWEIS HQ:
I've now got Foster up 22 votes out of more than 40,000 cast. That's with 35 percent of precicts reporting. This one's as close as everyone expected, or closer.

UPDATE: 8:45pm
With 79% of precincts reporting, Bill Foster has about a 4500 vote lead. Oberweis is on life support.


UPDATE: 9:00pm
Bill Foster has won the 14th District Special Election

Foster - 50,451 - 52%
Oberweis - 45,741 - 48%
98% Reporting

And things get even worse for Illinois Republicans. You can bet that Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam won't be sleeping well tonight. Both won pretty narrow victories in 2006, and that was without running in the shadow of Barack Obama.


UPDATE: 9:15pm
The Politico reports just how bad this was for the GOP:

Oberweis was even unable to win in Hastert's home base of Kendall County -- a reliably Republican, fast-growing county in exurban Chicago which Foster won by a narrow margin.

The loss is a huge psychological blow to the Republican party, which already faces a difficult 2008 cycle because of a rash of congressional retirements and fundraising woes. Democrats hadn't contested Hastert's seat since 1986, and in Foster, had a political novice running in a traditionally Republican district.

The National Republican Congressional Committee spent over $1 million in the race - nearly one-fifth of their entire cash-on-hand - in a failed attempt to hold on to what many political observers felt would be a fairly easy seat to retain.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also spent $1 million in ads attacking Oberweis.

Though, as is to be expected, the DCCC is blowing this a tad out of proportion:

"Congratulations to Bill Foster on his victory tonight. Bill Foster's victory in the seat that was held by Speaker Hastert sends a political shock wave across America this election year. It is a stunning rejection of the Bush Administration, its Republican allies, and presidential nominee John McCain," said DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen in a statement.

That's a bit much. It's a Dem pickup in what is projected to be a Dem year in what was already a very blue state. From Melissa Bean's dethroning of Phil Crane in 04 to the close contests for Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam in 2006, Congressional Democrats have been making gains in Illinois for a while now.

This has less to do with a rejection of John McCain than with a wholesale embrace of Barack Obama. No doubt that the endorsement ad Foster was able to run for the last few days - and the general Democrat excitement created by Obama's presidential candidacy - were major aids to Foster's win.

Part of this loss for the GOP is tied up in the problems of "being Jim Oberweis", as to borrow a phrase from Todd Stroger. Oberweis is a controversial figure, even in Republican politics as we saw from his brutal battle with Chris Lauzen. The reality is "the milk man" is an easy guy to beat up. We're seeing the results of that tonight. Despite Oberweis counterpunches, Foster was still able to post a solid victory. The Oberweis camp has their work cut out for them as we head to November, where the only wild card is how the even more drama-wrought Democrat Presidential contest will ultimately play out.

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Filed Under: Race for Congress

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