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Race for President
 Throw out the old line of questioning.Really, tonight is less about wondering who will win and more about how big Clinton's margin of victory will be. And the much more prescient question is what does her victory actually mean? Most of the media coverage of the Democrat race over the past few weeks has been, at best, disingenuous. The archives are replete with stories about Hillary's math problem; how she'd have to win a statically improbable - essentially impossible - percentage of the vote to overtake Obama in pledged delegates. And while this is wholly accurate, it's missing the forest for the trees. The truth that most have known all along is that the nomination will turn on the will of the Democrat superdelegates. Neither Obama nor Clinton can capture enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination outright. For either one to become the Democrat nominee, they're going to have to win the support of the majority of superdelegates. The vast majority of the prognosticators have declared there to be no way the superdelegates could take the nomination away from Obama, seeing as he leads in both pledged delegate count and popular vote count. This too, is completely disingenuous. The reality is the superdelegates exist specifically for the potentiality of doing just that. They can do whatever they want to do. If the candidate leading in delegate and popular vote count was to always be the nominee, then there would be no reason for the superdelegates to exist in the first place. And this is the axis on which the nomination race turns: who makes the more cogent argument to the Democrat superdelegates? Obama will contend that he leads Hillary in pledged delegates and in the popular vote count. Over the course of these primary victories, his candidacy has brought countless new voters into the fold. In short, he's the leader, the frontrunner and the assumed Democrat nominee. Hillary will argue that while she trails Obama in pledged delegates, she's won the majority of major swing states and is the preference of the powerful Democrat states like California and New York. Hillary will argue Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers, mostly to the point that her multitude of baggage has already been publicly picked through with a fine-toothed comb. To a great extent, Obama is still an unknown quantity. She'll argue Obama's quip about "bitter" voters who cling to God and guns, and Michelle Obama's comment about for the first time ever being proud of America show that Obama's campaign is prone to gaffes not unlike the "voted for it before I voted against it" line that helped to undo John Kerry's White House bid. She'll point to current polling showing her matching up better with McCain in major swing states. And she argue that the voters in the important General Election states of Florida and Michigan have been disenfranchised and deserve consideration. And to the extent that she wants to extend the circus surrounding this line of argument, she can contend that Obama has a problem connecting with white voters. There's polling data that supports her claim, if she's willing the shoulder of weight of that racial argumentation. Despite having more bullet points, Clinton - as of today - has the much steeper argumentative hill to climb. But, again, the superdelegates are under no obligation to ratify Obama just because he leads the metric categories. They exist for the possibility of doing the opposite. And while some suggest that there's no possible way they could take it away from Obama now, simple logic shows that thinking erroneous. Can you not imagine a single scenario under which the superdelegates would feel they have enough justification to award Clinton the nomination? Consider the bumpy ride Obama's been on over the last two months. Rev. Wright. Bill Ayers. "Bittergate." More Rev. Wright. Nothing could happen that would preclude Obama as the nominee in the minds of the superdelegates? While this is all admittedly unlikely, it's most certainly possible. And as long as that possibility exists, it's not over until... well... "the lady in the pants suit says it is"... Here are the mainstream media previews of tonight: Five things to watch in W. Va. - Politico Obama Braces for West Virginia Setback - Wall Street Journal In West Virginia, women for Hillary Clinton haven't (quite) given up the dream - Los Angeles Times W.Va. Win Unlikely to Change Race for Clinton -- But Obama Again Confronts Doubts - ABC Obama looks to November as Clinton looks to Tuesday - Chicago Tribune Clinton focuses on West Virginia; Obama, on future - CNN Democrats say let the contest continue - USA Today Results will be here: West Virginia Updates tonight as developments warrant... UPDATE: 6:30pm Polls are closed in West Virginia. Everyone with a pulse is projecting Clinton to win. UPDATE: 6:40pm Fox News exit polls have Clinton winning 68%-32%. The constant theme throughout the primaries has been Obama sub-par performance in comparison to the exit poll numbers. UPDATE: 6:55pm Just for the record, Fox's exit polls have 69% of whites voting for Clinton. Interpret that as you will. UPDATE: 8:10pm 10% reporting: Clinton - 26,414 - 61% - 15 delegates Obama - 13,913 - 32% - 6 delegates Hillary is speaking in West Virginia, and is "more determined than ever to carry on this campaign until everyone has had a chance to make their voices heard." Listen to Hillary and WLS' election coverage here UPDATE: 8:15pm This race really has become interesting political theater. Hillary speech sounds like fightin' words. She's clearly speaking in terms of making a better case for being the nominee. Can this be anything but a direct appeal to superdelegates? UPDATE: 8:17pm ABC has more on the race situation in the WV exit polls UPDATE: 8:45pm 32% reporting: Clinton - 73,628 - 64% - 15 delegates Obama - 32,866 - 29% - 6 delegates UPDATE: 9:20pm  This is Cong. Tom Cole of Oklahoma. Currently, Cole heads up the National Republican Congressional Committee. After tonight, it'll probably be someone else: Democrats picked up a northern Mississippi House seat in one of the most conservative-minded districts in the country tonight -- an upset victory that will carry significant ramifications into the November elections. UPDATE: 9:45pm 62% reporting now: Clinton - 144,518 - 65% - 17 delegates Obama - 61,400 - 28% - 8 delegates UPDATE: 10:30pm 76% reporting, Clinton's up 100,000+ votes Clinton - 181,418 - 66% - 19 delegates Obama - 73,631 - 27% - 8 delegates It's remarkable that in the face of the numerous media declarations of Clinton's campaign death... ...she manages to (as of this moment), best Barack Obama - ostensibly the nominee, right? - by 100k+ votes. If Obama is going to be the nominee, why aren't more Democrat voters rallying around him, wanting to cast their vote for a winner? What is driving those voters to reject Obama so uniformly? And after all, much was being made of the protest vote against McCain in the late GOP contests, especially with Libertarian Bob Barr's entrance into the race. UPDATE: 11:30pm Final numbers, 100% reporting: Clinton - 239,062 - 67% - 20 delegates Obama - 91,652 - 26% - 8 delegates Nearly a 150k margin of victory for Clinton. I expect this will only raise more questions on Obama's electability - probably lead to a few more spats over "white voters" - in the coming days. Especially since we can expect a repeat of today next Tuesday in Kentucky. Filed Under: Race for President E-mail this article to a friend | Printer friendly format |
Countdown to Election Day
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